The sales of lithium hydroxide are scarce, not only because of the low transaction in the middle of the month, but also because the transition period of subsidies will be over, and the downstream Sanyuan cathode material plant will adjust the production structure.
Battery terminal market:
The transition period for new energy subsidies ended this week. The impulse behavior continued this month but the overall momentum has weakened. The mainframe factories are mostly on the sidelines, the industry’s cost reduction pressure is still there, or some models are facing further growth after the subsidy transition period ends. The price may be. At the same time, industry demand has been released ahead of schedule, and due to the recent frequent occurrence of new energy vehicle safety accidents, downstream demand is not good. At present, the competition between the square power battery and the cylindrical battery market is fierce, and the price decline is large; the soft pack battery market is mainly affected by the fall in raw material prices due to the concentration of market participants, and the price cut is limited.
Upstream raw material prices:
Cobalt: Domestic metal cobalt spot and speculative disk market doubles down, big manufacturers offer strong, but the downstream wait-and-see mood is heavier, procurement is cautious, importers are pushing for a deal, no longer firm offer. In terms of cobalt hydroxide, the profit margin of the smelter is still insufficient, and the market expects that the market demand will not improve. The willingness to purchase intermediate goods is not good. Some of the cobalt hydroxide suppliers have loosened their offer, but the reported price is still farther than the buyer’s psychological price. It is expected that the price game will continue for a while and the price center of gravity will continue to be revised. In the third quarter, the domestic consumer market was relatively stable, and the demand for the power market was shrinking. The downward pressure on the buyer’s market will gradually shift from the midstream material factory to the upstream smelter and mine. SMM maintains its previous judgment. It is expected that the price of cobalt ore in the future will gradually decline, and the price premium of overseas high-priced smelting products will gradually disappear.
Lithium: The price of lithium carbonate began to decline last week. Although there were fewer transactions in the middle of the month, the market mentality was bearish. Battery-grade lithium carbonate manufacturers said that orders in July were significantly lower than in June, and they had to adopt price reduction measures in response to market changes. Industrial-grade lithium carbonate manufacturers revealed that they are currently executing orders at the beginning of the month or the end of last month, but feel that downstream inquiries are not so positive, and they are worried about the sales in the third quarter. The sales of lithium hydroxide are scarce, not only because of the low transaction in the middle of the month, but also because the transition period of subsidies will be over, and the downstream Sanyuan cathode material plant will adjust the production structure. Although the current premium of lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate is shrinking, we believe there is still room for some decline. It is expected that the two will narrow to around 0.5 million yuan per ton this year.
Post time: Nov-26-2018
