On June 23, Australian lithium miner Pilbara announced that before its sixth BMX auction, the dust had settled in advance at a price of US$6,350/ton, a 6.6% increase from the previous auction price of US$5,955/ton.
After adjusting the lithium content and freight proportionately, the quotation is about US$7,017/ton based on the SC6.0 CIF China price. It is reported that the amount of ore in this auction is 5,000 dry tons, and the concentrate grade is 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE is about 449,000 yuan / ton, and the cost of ore has exceeded 400,000 yuan! The ore is expected to be shipped in late July, Pilbara said.
SMM analysis said that considering the logistics cycle, the batch of spodumene concentrate is expected to enter the market in September-October
SMM spot price shows that spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) temporarily stabilized today after a slight increase of 30 US dollars / ton yesterday. The spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate also rose by 1,000 yuan / ton yesterday after being silent for many days, and remained stable at 469,000 yuan / ton today.
The SMM survey shows that the reason for the slight increase in the price of lithium carbonate this time is mainly because the lithium carbonate with low quality and low price has been sold, resulting in a low price increase.
As for the fundamentals, the import data shows that the import of lithium salt increased by 68% in May. Due to the increase in import supply and a large number of orders purchased at the beginning of the month, some large factories have sufficient existing inventory, and the purchase volume of lithium salt factories has only increased slightly.
On the supply side, some lithium salt factories lack confidence in the actual recovery of the downstream, and their willingness to support prices has weakened compared with before. Companies have maintained stability or even lowered their quotations.
On the demand side, due to the lag in settlement funds of battery cell factories, the existing capital chain is under increased pressure, and they are unwilling to buy at high prices; although Sanyuan has increased the number of inquiries for electric carbon, the actual transactions are less. Due to the poor recovery of the digital terminal, lithium cobalt oxide has less demand for carbon in the lithium salt factory. The overall demand side is flat.
At present, there are obvious differences on the future trend of lithium prices in China. Ningde Times said that the supply of lithium mines is sufficient from a global perspective, and a large part of the price increase is due to speculation; Everbright Securities believes that in 2022-2023, lithium prices will continue to be High volatility, lithium resources are expected to return to the balance of supply and demand by 2024; Credit Suisse Securities predicts that as high lithium prices accelerate the expected supply of upstream projects (lithium mines and lithium carbonate), the market will reach a state of supply and demand balance this year. And there may not be a supply gap in the future.
However, for this Pilbara’s spodumene auction, the price was locked in advance and a high price of US$6,350/ton was given. Pilbara CEO Dale Henderson (Dale Henderson) commented that this result further shows that the current global The demand for battery raw materials in the lithium supply chain is still very strong, and the outlook for the lithium industry is expected to remain healthy in the future.
Post time: Jul-28-2022
